NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracket Picks: Expert Predictions and Analysis

Buckle up, college basketball fans. The most entertaining three-week stretch in sports is set to get underway this week as the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is here. The bubble burst for several teams during conference tournament action last week, as the likes of Oklahoma, Auburn and Indiana were left on the outside looking in. Meanwhile, Texas, North Carolina State, Miami (OH) and SMU were the final four teams to sneak into the field. Now the bracket is set, the matchups are locked in, and the madness is about to begin. Will Florida repeat as champions? Is this the year a Big Ten team finally ends the conference’s title drought and wins its first national championship since 2000? From potential Cinderella runs to conference rivals on a collision course, there’s no shortage of intriguing storylines as the tournament gets set to tip off. Before the first game gets underway, our experts have filled out their brackets and made their predictions for how the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament will unfold. Here’s a look at our experts’ picks. [MARCH MADNESS: NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Bracket] Michael Cohen, college football and basketball writer Biggest first-round upset(s): No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville; No. 11 Texas/North Carolina State over No. 6 BYU First No. 1 seed to lose: Florida (Elite Eight to Houston) Final Four: Duke, Houston, Arizona, Michigan National champion: Duke Why Duke will win the national championship: It’s hard to overlook what Duke accomplished in beating then-No. 1 Michigan on a neutral floor in late February to vault atop the national rankings. That evening in Washington, D.C. presented a rare, late-season matchup between the two best teams in the sport, and when all was said and done, the Blue Devils emerged victorious in a game they largely controlled. A deep roster, a burgeoning head coach in Jon Scheyer and the single-best player in the country in power forward Cameron Boozer should give Duke more than enough firepower to capture the program’s first national title since 2015. Especially if Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II can get healthy. Casey Jacobsen, college basketball studio and game analyst Biggest first-round upset(s): No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech First No. 1 seed to lose: Florida (Elite Eight to Houston) Final Four: Duke, Houston, Arizona, Michigan National champion: Michigan Why Michigan will win the national championship: I fell in love with this team during the Players Era Tournament over Thanksgiving. Michigan didn’t just beat San Diego State, Auburn, and Gonzaga—they humiliated them. That week made it clear the Wolverines have one of the best frontcourts in the country with Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. Their length suffocates teams at the rim and anchors the nation’s No. 1 defense in KenPom (with Duke as a close 1B). Opponents shoot just 44.3% from 2-point range and 30.2% from 3-point range. Michigan’s offense is nearly as good, ranking eighth nationally. Point guard Elliot Cadeau transferred from North Carolina to run the show. He can be loose with the ball, but he’s also hitting a career-best 38% from deep. If that holds in March, I love this pick. Senior guard Roddy Gayle brings downhill slashing while fellow senior guard Nimari Burnett spaces the floor. Everyone understands their role. There’s no stat for it, but this group clearly plays for each other. Michigan might be the most balanced and versatile team in the field, with another gear on both ends that even the other No. 1 seeds don’t have. I think they’ll become the first Big Ten team to win a national title since Michigan State in 2000.