Sound Smart: 6 Observations on the Latest NFL Moves

The NFL never sleeps, not even in March amid free agency’s doldrums and still a month away from the draft. Last week, the Denver Broncos traded a first-round pick (and more) to the Miami Dolphins for receiver Jaylen Waddle. The Kansas City Chiefs traded with the New York Jets for QB Justin Fields. And the Dallas Cowboys, usually one of the NFL’s loudest teams, have been suspiciously quiet. We also saw current and former NFL players fall hard to a group of all-star flag football players. That’s what we saw at the surface level. This is “Sound Smart,” where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what’s happening this NFL offseason. 1. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW With the Jaylen Waddle trade, the Broncos got outstanding (hidden) value. But what do the Dolphins know that we don’t? For the Broncos, this is the perfect trade. There aren’t many offenses that fit Waddle better than what Sean Payton runs. The Broncos have been seeking a Waddle-type receiver — the kind of set-it-and-forget-it outside burner who will consistently beat man coverage downfield. (And that’s hardly the only thing he does well.) Denver receivers Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. haven’t gotten it done in that role, not even alongside the most underrated possession receiver in the NFL: Courtland Sutton. I’d be curious to see what becomes of the tight end position — whether the Broncos find a way to address that role in the draft or whether one of their veterans can step up. I could see them drafting a mid-round tight end (assuming Oregon star Kenyon Sadiq isn’t within striking distance in Round 1) and a mid-round running back to see if they can find a rookie upgrade. But the Denver offense is getting increasingly more dangerous, and it was already dang good last season. For Miami, the move makes a little bit of sense, in a cold and calculated way. For a team that’s clearly eyeing a rebuild, the Dolphins apparently didn’t feel they could take on the risks of holding onto Waddle, 27, for a year too long — with the worry that, by the time the team is competitive, he’s not an elite threat anymore. But I don’t think this is as perfect for Miami as it is for Denver. And that’s because Waddle is a proven entity, which the Dolphins will not be getting at 31st overall or at 94th overall (in the third round). To complicate matters more, the 2026 draft is lacking in star power. And while we’ve said that in years past, it’s truer than ever. That 31st overall pick is going to get the Dolphins a second-round prospect, given the weakness of this draft class. So on paper, Miami got the value they probably wanted, but when we see those players, I’m dubious that the Dolphins will be pleased with the results. The other issue is that this is clearly not what’s best for Miami’s new quarterback, Malik Willis. He’s set to turn 27 before the 2026 season, and while the team’s offensive line isn’t a disaster, the QB has no one of relevance to throw to outside of RB De’Von Achane. I’m more than a little confused about why the Dolphins signed Willis. They could have added a budget option like Geno Smith. They could’ve just hung in there with Tua Tagovailoa for one more year. There were options that wouldn’t have had them investing in Wills for three years and $67.5 million. Maybe the Dolphins have big plans: drafting USC receiver Makai Lemon at No. 11 overall and signing a cheap(ish) but reliable veteran such as Stefon Diggs, Deebo Samuel or Keenan Allen. But right now, the Willis signing — a two-year deal — seems to be on a different timeline than the rest of their moves. What do they have up their sleeves? Is this situation as rough as it looks? Or do they know something we don’t? 2. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY The Team USA flag football team made it clear that NFL athletes might not make the Olympic national team. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels and other elite NFL athletes would represent the U.S. in flag football at the 2028 L.A. Olympics. But after what we saw on Saturday at the Fanatics “Flag Football Classic,” I’m not so sure that there will be many NFL players on Team USA. At the Fanatics event, the pro flag football players went undefeated against two teams made up of current and former NFL players. The aggregate score: 106-44. The flag players put on a show. But … there are some important pieces of context. Receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. were out there. Tom Brady was out there. So was newly-elected Hall of Fame linebacker Luke Kuechly. Some of those veteran or retired NFL players were misfits stylistically for flag football, a game best suited to agile, smaller, explosive players. (That was why Barkley, a power-based back, wasn’t all that useful either.) The pro flag players no doubt wanted to prove their value against the NFL stars, who no doubt wanted to win but also wanted to make sure they didn’t get hurt. And finally, the NFL players were new to these rules and could train to improve their skills. Would they? I don’t know. But they are such incredible athletes that there’s no doubt they could drill away at some of the key differences in the two games. Now that we’ve acknowledged all that, these games showed that it’s a real risk to pick an NFL pro over a flag pro, particularly on defense. The bottom line is that the pro flag players dominated the likes of Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. There was such a clear advantage for the flag players, masters of their own game (which was far less transferable than anyone in the NFL community anticipated). It would be humbling for NFL players to get an invite to Olympic Trials for flag football, particularly if they genuinely weren’t sure if they could beat out the flag football pros. But that might be what gets the best on-field product for the Olympics — a tryout that mixes players from both games to create the most impressive and dominant unit. But that begs the question: Would any NFL players show up to a tryout? It’s going to be a complicated selection process. 3. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY Justin Fields is back! He’s a Chief — and what a fascinating match between team and quarterback. But first, let’s go back to the QB’s days in Pittsburgh. In 10 games in 2024, including six starts, Fields showed serious promise, playing within the system and without recklessness. His immense tools were on display, but there weren’t many situations where he tried to do too much. In other words, it was a great situation for him. The Jets were the opposite. It was just a brutally obvious place for Fields to regress, with the organization dragging him down — perhaps further than where he was in Chicago. Field’s trip to New York was yet another reminder that young quarterbacks should not — under any circumstances — choose to go to the Jets, particularly not if their development is at a fragile stage. But Fields will get another shot in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes might be the ultimate competitor, but even he might not be able to get back on the field for Week 1 after his ACL tear in December. This is a legitimately good opportunity for Fields. As bad as the Chiefs’ offense was in 2025, they’re clearly invested in improving it in 2026, with former Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker joining the team as a free agent. There has always been a disparity between Field’s top-end skill and Fields’ consistency in playing the QB position. If anyone can help him bridge that gap, it’s Andy Reid and his staff. If Fields can get back on track in 2026, we are seeing teams give quarterbacks a second chance to start, particularly when they prove themselves as professionals and QB2s. Fields just landed in an ideal spot to — again — rehabilitate his game film. And with a few games to start at the beginning of the season, Fields can keep his dreams alive as a potential starter. 4. WHAT I’M HEARING 5. OFFSEASON ODDITY Has anyone heard from the Cowboys in a while? It’s been an offseason custom for Dallas and owner Jerry Jones to make major headlines in one way or another. But this offseason hasn’t been like that. And that’s despite them having the most highly-coveted pending free agent, All-Pro receiver George Pickens, whom the team tagged to retain. That should have led to ongoing contract talks, but it’s been mostly quiet. The Cowboys traded a 2027 fourth-rounder for Packers defensive end Rashan Gary (rather than make a much larger trade for someone like Maxx Crosby) to hold down the edge. Dallas also signed defensive players in safety Jalen Thompson, DT Otito Ogbonnia, and cornerback Cobie Durant. Gary and Thompson are likely starters and Durant and Ogbonnia are solid contributors. None of those players is likely to transform the defense to the level that the team needs. To the Cowboys’ credit, they haven’t done anything careless. But of course, there’s still time. Dallas has two first-round picks and four picks inside the top 112 picks for 2026. The Cowboys have serious firepower to add more talent in the draft, hopefully more on defense. And of course, there are talented — albeit aging — defensive players on the free agency market. But it’s surprising that Thompson and Gary are the Cowboys’ biggest splashes. We already knew draft night would be huge for the Cowboys. Knowing them, it’ll probably be fireworks. 6. WHAT IF … Malik Willis had signed with basically anyone other than the Dolphins. It’s unclear what other teams were in the hunt for Willis. (Maybe it was really just Miami.) But we have yet to see the Dolphins work to set up Willis for success. In fact, their fire sale could end up doing the opposite. Given what I just wrote about Fields, I worry about a similar outcome for Willis. It’s a deeply comparable situation, with Aaron Glenn (a defensive-minded coach) leaving the Lions to take over the Jets — much like Jeff Hafley (a defensive-minded coach) leaving the Packers to take over the Dolphins. When Hafley signed Willis, I thought the Dolphins might have a plan to honor the QB’s development. But that developmental trajectory is now looking murky. Which is why I’m wondering… What if he’d signed with the Arizona Cardinals? What if he’d signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers? In either place, he’d have an offensive-minded head coach with at least two pass-catchers who have a track record of outstanding production. The Steelers’ offensive line is substantially better than the Cardinals’. (And I suspect new Steelers boss Mike McCarthy will be a substantially better coach than new Cardinals boss Mike LaFleur in 2026.) But in my mind, both cities would have been a better place for Willis to sign and develop at a healthier pace and trajectory than he currently projects in Miami. Willis had only 28 high-difficulty dropbacks during his time at Green Bay, when you take out the quick game and the screen passes. He reversed a downward developmental trend that started in Tennessee. But he’s not forever safe from regression. I don’t trust Miami to protect Willis’ development — not with the Dolphins trading Waddle. Here’s hoping that Willis knew what he was doing when he picked the Dolphins. Here’s hoping the Dolphins knew what they were doing when they picked Willis.