2026 Super Bowl Odds: Back Seattle Defense to Stymie Drake Maye, Patriots

With the Super Bowl between the Patriots and the Seahawks on the horizon, I’m going to be digging through different markets over the next days that I like. Let’s kick off the Big Game betslips with a couple wagers on some props. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. I’m not bullish on New England’s chances to score points against this Seattle defense. The Seahawks’ defense is first in defensive DVOA, and it is extremely hard to score against if you’re not the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle’s defense is sound and has playmakers at all three levels. The Seahawks play a ton of zone, tackle well and don’t make many errors. They match up well against New England, which struggles on the offensive line and does not have elite wide receivers. As a whole, the skill group is fine, but not one player will scare Seattle. The Patriots’ run game has picked up recently but will be tested once again in the Super Bowl. Furthermore, New England’s offense this season has jarring splits when it plays poor defenses versus when it plays good ones. When the Pats play below-average defenses, they average nearly 32 points per game and only half a turnover per contest. When they play above-average defenses, their offense drops to 22 points per game with 1.5 turnovers per game. So 10 points fewer and one more turnover. In the Patriots’ three playoff games against top-10 defenses, they put up 18 points per game and nearly two turnovers each contest. That doesn’t include all the fumbles that they recovered. The Pats only scored a single touchdown in two of their three playoff games. I like New England Under 20.5 points in this game. PICK: Patriots Under 20.5 points scored Here’s another prop that I like and it features Pats quarterback Drake Maye. The most consistent part of the Patriots’ offense this postseason has been Maye’s legs. His ability to rush the football has been a major reason the offense has scored. He rushed 10 times in both the Chargers and Broncos games, with 65 and 66 yards in those matchups. Against Houston, he only had four rushes for 10 yards. I believe we will see Maye struggle to move the ball with his legs. One important factor to the success of a quarterback scrambling is the defense they are facing. Against man-coverage, a QB is able to find the middle of the defense empty, as defenders chase their coverage assignments. He steps back into the pocket to survey the field, is able to see an empty plane and then takes off. It often happened against the Broncos for Maye. Against a zone defense, there are more defenders over the ball with eyeballs to the quarterback. It’s more difficult for a QB to scramble with a linebacker standing over the ball. I also believe the Seahawks’ defense will be keyed into Maye’s ability to extend plays with his legs. PICK: Drake Maye Under 37.5 rushing yards Here’s another Under that I’m eyeing and it’s on the first quarter. Both of these teams have outstanding defenses that will require the opposing offenses a few drives to figure out how to best attack their opponent. The Patriots offense has failed to score any points in the first quarter in two of their three playoff games. They did score seven against Houston. That game was the best their offense looked this postseason. The Seahawks defense is first in DVOA and they are going to sit in zone all game. They are not going to allow New England’s offense to generate any explosive plays. New England will rely on its defense and field position, which typically leads to fewer points early. It’s worth noting that Tom Brady scored zero touchdowns in his eight Super Bowls with New England in the first quarter. Multiple of those were with current offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels calling the plays. So there’s a history of slower starts with this play-caller. I do trust Seattle’s offense to score earlier more than New England because of offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s creative, opening play calls. The Seahawks scored 17 points in the first quarter against the 49ers, although seven of those were on an opening kickoff. Seattle scored 10 against the Rams in its last game. Fortunately for my wager, the Seahawks are not playing the beat-up 49ers defense or the Rams’ poor secondary. The Patriots defense is outstanding and will require Seattle’s best offensive effort. You also have to factor in early-game nerves for both offenses. Not a single starter on either side of the ball has played in the Super Bowl. Defenses tend to play faster early in these moments, as they can rely on playing fast and on their speed, while offenses need more precision to win. I like the first quarter Under. PICK: 1st Quarter Under 7.5 points scored Now, I just need one Over in my portfolio so I can root for something good to happen. My play is Rashid Shaheed to be that guy. The Patriots defense is going to attempt taking away the new NFL Offensive Player of the Year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has 119 receptions for 1,793 yards and he’s been Sam Darnold’s go-to option the entire season. New England will not win this game without taking him away. So if the Pats do, or at least try, then someone else on Seattle will need to make plays for them. This is where I look toward Shaheed. The Pats often lock corner Christian Gonzalez into the boundary in man coverage and he’s been burned a bit. Shaheed’s speed will give him an advantage if the Patriots continue to deploy this offense. Seattle might also use Shaheed in the run game as a complement with their depth taking a hit there. PICK: Rashid Shaheed Over 32.5 rushing and receiving yards