MLB Roundtable: How Vulnerable Are The Yankees?

There are roughly 30 games left in the MLB season and there are still playoff spots up for grabs, including in the AL East, where the New York Yankees are just two games ahead of the Boston Red Sox. Let’s take a look at the playoff picture and the star returns that could change it in this week’s MLB Roundtable with Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar: The last time the Red Sox faced the Yankees, Boston swept New York but were still 10 games under .500. Now, Boston is 73-60 and just behind New York for the top wild-card. What are the chances the Red Sox actually overtake the Yankees in the standings? Kavner: I won’t be stunned if it happens. Since losing Aaron Judge at the end of May, the Yankees’ offense ranks last in MLB in batting average and on-base percentage. It’s still unclear when, exactly, he’ll return and what he’ll look like when he does. The return of Cody Bellinger and the deadline addition of Luis Garcia Jr. have provided a boost to the lineup, but the Yankees didn’t do anything to address their bullpen. That might prove costly, especially with Fernando Cruz now down. And who knows how Max Fried’s recurring elbow issue will impact him the rest of the way? Meanwhile, we just saw the Red Sox have a 21-4 month of July and have gotten the wheels back on track after a rough start to August. Strength of schedule matters a lot at this time of year, and the Yankees have the easier road ahead. But if the Red Sox can take the series this weekend in the Bronx, it’ll basically be a toss-up the rest of the way. Thosar: The gap is so small, and the Yankees’ bullpen looks so vulnerable, that it’s entirely possible the standings could flip by the end of the weekend. Plus, rookie shortstop George Lombard Jr. has the yips. He’s committed six errors in his past six straight games. But, right now, general manager Brian Cashman’s gamble of declining to add a relief arm at the trade deadline is hurting the club. Set-up man Fernando Cruz is dealing with a partial tear of his UCL, and two starters in Max Fried and Ryan Weathers are on the IL. Due to their lack of pitching depth, journeyman Justin Topa is being forced to pitch in high-leverage situations. The Red Sox always have extra fire when they come to the Bronx. If they manage to overtake the Bombers in the four-game set this weekend, which includes a doubleheader on Saturday, it’s actually easy to see them hanging onto that lead through the rest of the season. The Yankees aren’t whole, but mid-season adds like George Lombard Jr., Luis García Jr. and Gerrit Cole have helped paper over that. Does New York still have enough for a deep postseason run if Giancarlo Stanton doesn’t return, or Aaron Judge isn’t quite himself when he’s back? Kavner: Yes, only because the American League is that bad. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Ben Rice have finally shown some signs of life over the last week, which needs to continue. And if Max Fried’s elbow can hold up over the next two months, a rotation featuring Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Fried and Carlos Rodón might still be good enough to make up for the inconsistent offense and lack of depth behind the top bullpen arms. I can’t see them contending with the top team in the National League if Judge isn’t himself, though. Thosar: The Yankees offense is so inconsistent without Judge that it’s hard to imagine they go far if the captain isn’t right or at all limited due to his rib fracture. That being said, they’ve looked more complete with the return of Cody Bellinger, whose thump in the lineup was sorely missed. Garcia Jr. looks more comfortable in pinstripes every time he steps into the box. And the rest of the American League is so weak that a Stanton-less playoff offense should be able to hang in there as long as the rotation is as sharp and healthy as the Yankees expect it to be. Jacob Misiorowski has been the Brewers’ MVP, but this is a team that wins because it has so many productive parts. Who, besides Miz, is most key to the Brewers’ success at this stage of the season? Kavner: I’m tempted to say Jake Bauers, which is wild, but I’ll go with William Contreras. If Milwaukee’s going to make a deep run, the Brewers’ pitching has to carry them through October, and their hitters can’t get overpowered again by the best arms in the game. Contreras will have his hands on all of it. He has helped Jacob Misiorowski navigate traffic throughout the year — I keep thinking back to the sliders he called to help Miz strike out Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in a tough spot — and he will be crucial in guiding Miz and the Brewers’ young arms through the highest-pressure moments to come. But if he’s also swinging a hot bat, that could be the difference in Milwaukee’s season. It’s been a down year offensively for the three-time All-Star catcher, but Contreras has started to turn things around since homering in Los Angeles a couple weeks ago. With Brice Turang battling through knee pain and Christian Yelich struggling all year the Brewers might need Contreras to be an impact offensive player come October. Thosar: It feels like there’s no wrong answer with so many players essential to their low-profile winning ways, but I’ll go with Brice Turang. By WAR, he’s been the Brewers’ best position player all year, keeping the offensive engine going despite the team’s no-power approach. He’s combining plus contact with elite defense at second base and real base-stealing value, giving Milwaukee a legitimate power-speed threat who’s in reach of his first 20/20 season. And unlike Misiorowski, he plays almost every day, which matters more for a Brewers team that’s had to survive a wave of injuries. Some other honorable mentions for this question include: William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, and Jake Bauers. The AL West is a mess, but at least the Rangers have an excuse: Corey Seager has required two IL stints. Are the Rangers good enough to reach the postseason with a healthy and productive Seager back? Kavner: If the season ended Thursday afternoon (as I’m writing this), the winner of the AL West would have a losing record. So, yes, the Rangers are good enough to win the division with a healthy Seager. They’ve been as mediocre as a mediocre team could be this year (they were 45-45, 50-50, 55-55 and 60-60), and mediocre should be good enough in this embarrassing division. I’m not counting on it happening, though. Right now, FanGraphs gives them a 26.4% chance to win the division — a lower mark than either the first-place Astros or the third-place Mariners. The lineup misses Josh Jung’s bat, Nathan Eovaldi remains out, Jacob deGrom hasn’t really looked right, and the bullpen has been shaky. I still kind of think, remarkably, that Seattle finds a way to win it. Go look at the Mariners’ schedule in September. Thosar: Since the Rangers could reach the postseason with a losing record, sure, why not? They’d be better with a healthy Seager, and he’d help close the tiny one-game gap between the Astros. But, in reality, Seager alone probably isn’t enough to be the difference-maker at this point in the season. This is ultimately a lost season for the veteran shortstop. He’s had three separate trips to the injured list, limiting him to just 74 games this season. He’s hitting a career-worst .224 in 314 plate appearances. The bigger problem is that Texas’ pitching has genuinely regressed since leading the league last year. Without that elite staff, and with the inconsistent and injury-riddled offense, the Rangers still have a tough road ahead of them.