NASCAR Sweet 16: Why Every Driver In Chase Could — Or Could Not — Win It All

The revamped Chase has 16 drivers in a 10-race mini-season after the points reset following the regular season. There are no eliminations. It all comes down to who has the most points after these 10 races. That driver will be the champion. There are just 100 points separating the top-16 drivers. The Chase tracks: Darlington, St. Louis, Bristol, Kansas, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead. Here are the 16 drivers who will compete for the 2026 championship: Points: First with 2,100 (+25 ahead of second)2026 Wins: Las Vegas, Nashville, Michigan, Pocono Why He Will Win Title: Hamlin has the experience of competing for a title and has won at all 10 Chase tracks at some point in his career. And if it comes down to Homestead, he has the third-best average finish there of any driver, including seven top fives in 21 starts. Why He Won’t Win Title: He’s Denny Hamlin. He’s not supposed to win the title. And when he gets to Homestead, he’ll be older than every champion in NASCAR history. Points: Second with 2,075 (-25 behind leader)2026 Wins: Phoenix, Atlanta, New Hampshire Why He Will Win Title: This could come down to stage points, and he and Ty Gibbs have earned the most this year. Plus, he should be good at Phoenix and Martinsville, two of the final four races. Why He Won’t Win Title: The Penske intermediate program is just not strong enough for Blaney to compete with the Toyotas. Points: Third with 2,065 (-35 behind leader)2026 Wins: Daytona, Atlanta (1), Austin, Darlington, Kansas Why He Will Win Title: He’s been known to go on a roll. And both Darlington and Kansas are in The Chase and those are tracks where he’s won. Why He Won’t Win Title: After an incredible start to the season, he’s lost momentum. Does anyone even remember that he had more than a 100-point lead in the standings earlier this year? Points: Fourth with 2,060 (-40)2026 Wins: Bristol, Iowa Why He Will Win Title: He earns lots of stage points so he should be in the hunt. And he now knows how to win Cup races. Why He Won’t Win Title: He’s just a little too young. He’d be the youngest champ ever. And can he really beat Denny Hamlin — his teammate — straight up over 10 races? Points: Fifth with 2,055 (-55)2026 Wins: Chicagoland Why He Will Win Title: Briscoe and the JGR No. 19 team tend to hang within striking distance. He has won the last two Southern 500s so he very well could open the race strong. Why He Won’t Win Title: Inconsistency could plague this team. Points: Sixth with 2,050 (-5)2026 Wins: None Why He Will Win Title: He’s had the most top-five finishes than in any season in his career. That should continue and will be key in this new format. Why He Won’t Win Title: He most likely will have to win a race. There’s no doubt he can. But many doubt he will. Points: Seventh with 2,045 (-55)2026 Wins: None Why He Will Win Title: Larson won the 2025 title without a win in The Chase. So why not? Granted, it’s a different system, but he could rack up the points. Why He Won’t Win Title: He just hasn’t had as consistent speed as he has in the past. And he needs to have that speed to compensate for the occasional mistake that results from his aggressive driving style. Points: Eighth with 2,040 (-60)2026 Wins: Martinsville, Texas Why He Will Win Title: Never count out Elliott, who can sneakily put together solid finishes. Why He Won’t Win Title: Like Larson, he just hasn’t had consistent speed. Points: Ninth with 2,035 (-65)2026 Wins: North Wilkesboro, Richmond Why He Will Win Title: It’s an even year, and Logano seems to perform when he needs it the most. Why He Won’t Win Title: It’s going to take a much better performance on the intermediates for him to have a shot. Points: 10th with 2,030 (-70)2026 Wins: None Why He Will Win Title: The guy rarely gets rattled and rarely makes mistakes. Why He Won’t Win Title: He and his team haven’t had the speed to overcome any mistakes or misfortunes. Points: 11th with 2,025 (-75)2026 Wins: Charlotte Why He Will Win Title: This is his best regular-season points position of the last four years, and he has confidence. Why He Won’t Win Title: He has rattled off top 10s and won Charlotte, but he hasn’t been up front enough to challenge. Points: 12th with 2,020 (-80)2026 Wins: Talladega Why He Will Win Title: He seems to have an attitude that he’s going to take it from the field. Why He Won’t Win Title: The field is determined not to let him take it. Points: 13th with 2,015 (-85)2026 Wins; None Why He Will Win Title: For the most part, Byron appears unflappable. But this certainly has been a trying year. Why He Won’t Win Title: He has led only 31 laps this season. That isn’t going to get it done. Points: 14th with 2,010 (-90)2026 Wins: None Why He Will Win Title: He has a Toyota in his hands and will be strong at most tracks. Why He Won’t Win Title: He just hasn’t put together consistent solid results for much of the year, and The Chase will reward consistency. Points: 15th with 2,005 (-95)2026 Wins: None Why He Will Win Title: He is relatively good at staying out of trouble and if others have misfortune, he could capitalize. Why He Won’t Win Title: He didn’t clinch a spot in The Chase until Daytona, a clear sign that he doesn’t have the week-in, week-out speed to win the title. Points: 16th with 2,000 (-100)2026 Wins: Daytona Why He Will Win Title: After Daytona, he probably feels he can do anything, and there’s something to be said for that confidence. Why He Won’t Win Title: He was a bubble driver because, until Daytona, Preece has been good and not great. Drivers typically don’t make that big of a jump in the final 10 races.