Can Michigan, USC Bounce Back? Joel Klatt’s Week 5 CFB Picks

Do the USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines manage bounce back wins after Week 4 losses? Does Alabama win on the road again, or will Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State overpower their defense? These are just a few of the many storylines of Week 5 of the 2026 college football season. USC fell to Oregon 41-27, marking their first loss at home since the 2023 season. The Trojans now host the Huskies in another home Big Ten matchup. The Iowa Hawkeyes beat Michigan after a fourth-quarter comeback, and now welcome No. 4 Ohio State to their home turf. With coaching hot seat conversations and conference play ramping up, Week 5 will be a test for some of college football’s top programs. Here are FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt’s Week 5 picks and previews: Spread: Ohio State -14.5Moneyline: Ohio State -625, Iowa +455 Klatt’s thoughts: “Kinnick Stadium is a dangerous place for top-five teams to go. It has been historic, no doubt. Ask Oregon and ask Indiana last season. Here comes Ohio State. I think there are a lot of people expecting a similar style of game, in particular after that win for Iowa over Michigan … You know how I feel about Kirk Ferentz and Iowa. I love the Iowa Hawkeyes. It just so happens though that this matchup is specifically not a great matchup for Iowa. But why is this a different matchup? Because of Jeremiah Smith. “While Iowa plays these other teams very tightly, they don’t play Ohio State very tightly … because of the deep-threat ability of Ohio State through the years, whether it’s been Smith, (Carnell) Tate, (Chris) Olave, or Garrett Wilson or any of these guys. In their last two matchups with Ohio State, Iowa has given up 54 and 35 points. Because it is an offense that can take advantage of the one-on-one on the outside … This is where the game is won or lost for Ohio State, they’re going to need to run the ball effectively. If Iowa helps on Smith and can still stop the run, Ohio State is in trouble … I think this matchup highly favors Ohio State because Iowa has to manipulate what they have to do on the other side of the ball.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: Ohio State Klatt’s pick against the spread: Ohio State -14.5 Spread: Alabama -5.5Moneyline: Alabama -225, Mississippi State +185 Klatt’s thoughts: “Alabama can flat throw the ball. Keelon Russell has been dynamic. This is kind of Kalen DeBoer’s offense … This week they’re going to see a little different defense. Now I don’t think that Russell will struggle because it’s a road game. He’s already had a road start. Having that in your pocket is huge for a young quarterback. He played at Kentucky, they even went through their lumps early in that game in his first road start. Now, he’s going to have a wealth of knowledge just from that one start against Kentucky. “Kamario Taylor, gosh he’s good. This is the best defense he will have seen by a wide margin. He’s unbelievable. They can run the ball as well. They’ll be at home. Alabama has faced some mobile quarterbacks already. They’ve got experience seeing (LaNorris) Sellers … did a great job against Ashton Daniels … I don’t think Alabama is going to go in there and blow the doors off Mississippi State by any stretch of imagination. But this is a better team than Missouri. This will be the best team Mississippi State has faced. “I think Alabama wins this one 35-28.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: AlabamaKlatt’s pick against the spread: Alabama -5.5 Spread: Florida -5.5Moneyline: Florida -205, Missouri +170 Klatt’s thoughts: “What a joke that Missouri is still ranked … Since Eliah Drinkwitz took over, Missouri is 0-16 – that is a goose egg and 16 – versus SEC teams that finished with a winning record in SEC play. So how do we think they’re going to do against Florida? “Florida can run the rock. I think that’s reliable when you go on the road … you’ve got Jadan Baugh. You’ve got Duke Clark. They can do it. I think Missouri might score some points in this one. They’re a bit of an all-or-nothing passing game with Austin Simmons. He’s only completing 60% of his passes against FBS opponents, but they can create big explosive plays. They still don’t have running back Ahmad Hardy though. Does Missouri win games like this? The answer’s no. Those are just the facts, that’s not me being a hater. “I think Florida wins this one 42-32.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: FloridaKlatt’s pick against the spread: Florida -5.5 Spread: Miami -16.5Moneyline: Miami -850, Clemson +575 Klatt’s thoughts: “I actually think this is going to be Miami’s announcement to the rest of the country. We think we know that they’re really good. I think on Saturday night we’re going to be like, ‘yep, that is one of – if not the – best teams in the country.’ … I don’t know if there’s enough guts in a bring your own guts-style environment for Dabo Swinney to go out there and beat a Miami team that’s that talented. Unless Miami beats themselves, which they have a propensity to do at times, but this feels different this year. You’ve got Darian Mensah playing at a high level. You’ve got Malachi Toney. And if we didn’t have Jeremiah Smith in the sport right now, Malachi Toney would be head and shoulders the best wide receiver in college football. “They’re better at the line of scrimmage than Clemson is. They’re better than Clemson. Clemson’s got some wins over Georgia Southern, North Carolina and Cal since the loss to LSU. None of those have been that impressive. Miami is a great team. I have them as an undefeated, No.1 seed in the College Football Playoff. “I’ve got Miami winning 42-17 on the road, and they cover 16.5.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: MiamiKlatt’s pick against the spread: Miami -16.5 Spread: USC -9.5Moneyline: USC -375, Oklahoma +295 Klatt’s thoughts: “Washington at USC. Both teams are coming off of tough losses at home. Washington lost to Minnesota, couldn’t protect the quarterback. And we all know about USC. Here’s the thing about USC and that loss to Oregon. Everyone is writing that program’s and coach’s obituary right now. That’s the talk of the town … that wasn’t an atrocious performance against Oregon. This is where it’s at for USC. I think the amount of pressure from the outside and the scrutiny … you either fold as a program or you get your best … I expect a good performance. That defense has obviously been bad for the last couple of weeks, but they did get DT Jahkeem Stewart back. Their freshmen are outstanding. “The problem with Washington is they don’t protect the quarterback. Minnesota sacked Demond Williams Jr. seven times and that led to turnovers. Guess what USC can do? They can get after the quarterback. They can rush the passer. I don’t see how USC scores less than 35 points in this game. “I think USC wins this one 35-21, and they cover the 9.5.” Klatt’s straight-up pick: USCKlatt’s pick against the spread: USC -9.5