MLB Championship Series: Breaking Down Dodgers-Brewers, Guardians-Rays

The top three teams with the best regular season records remain, along with a squad that personifies a never-quit attitude. We’re knee-deep in October baseball with both the Championship Series set to give us plenty of stars and drama. Let’s look at what it will take for each team to reach the World Series, their surprise players, and which stars need to really step up (Hint, hint: That includes a three-time MVP). NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES All times ET; * – if necessaryGame 1 – Sunday, October 11 at Brewers, 8 p.m. (FOX)Game 2 – Monday, October 12 at Brewers, 5 p.m. (FOX)Game 3 – Wednesday, October 14 at Dodgers, 8 p.m. (FS1)Game 4 – Thursday, October 15 at Dodgers, 9 p.m. (FS1)Game 5* – Friday, October 16 at Dodgers, 9 p.m. (FS1)Game 6* – Sunday, October 18 at Brewers, 8 p.m. (FS1)Game 7* – Monday, October 19 at Brewers, 8 p.m. (FOX or FS1) 2026 Record: 100-62 (1st in NL West; 2nd in NL)World Series Odds: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total) The Dodgers have arguably the most talented collection of starting pitchers ever assembled, a group capable of masking any other flaws with the roster. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow could all be No. 1s for other playoff rotations. Snell and Glasnow each walked five batters in the NLDS, though, and they’ll now face a Brewers offense that grinds out at-bats and makes pitchers work as well as any team in MLB. But if the Dodgers’ top arms pitch to their potential, it’ll be tough for any team to prevent a three-peat. One month ago, the beleaguered closer was in Triple-A trying to figure anything out to turn his disaster season around. He had an 11.85 ERA as a Dodger at the time, had undergone an elbow procedure and was coming off a neck issue. It felt like the first year of his three-year, $69 million deal might be a lost season. But five scoreless big-league appearances to end the year offered hope. Diaz made the postseason roster, threw three scoreless outings in the NLDS and provided an answer to the club’s big ninth-inning question entering October, securing saves in the Dodgers’ last two wins. No question here. For months, Ohtani didn’t look right physically as he battled left knee and right biceps issues. The Dodgers finally shut him down as a pitcher and placed him on the injured list in mid-September, hoping to get him a little closer to full strength as a hitter for October, even though they knew he likely wouldn’t be 100% the rest of the year. The NLDS wasn’t encouraging, as Ohtani went just 2-for-13 with no extra-base hits. Still, would anyone be surprised if he changes a game with one big swing? – Rowan Kavner 2026 Record: 103-59 (Best in MLB)World Series Odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total) It shouldn’t come as a surprise that a Brewers team that led MLB in batting average is doing so again this postseason. But it’s not just soft contact. Milwaukee ranked seventh in hard-hit rate during the regular season and is currently hitting the ball harder on average than any team this October. With a couple big swings from Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, this group should be able to put up more of a fight than it did last postseason. When the Brewers went to Dodger Stadium in August, Yelich went 1-for-12 with a walk and four strikeouts to sink his OPS to a season-low mark of .672 amid the worst offensive season of his 14-year career.  But manager Pat Murphy stuck with him at designated hitter, and Yelich responded promisingly from that point forward (.754 OPS over his final 32 games). The team captain then had a hit in each of the Brewers’ four games of the NLDS — an encouraging sign for an offense that can’t just be Chourio, Contreras or bust. The Brewers second baseman was arguably the biggest All-Star snub in the sport this year. Turang ranked third in MLB in bWAR (7.3) and fifth in fWAR (5.9) among all position players. The former Platinum Glove Award winner knocked in 100 runs, scored 102, launched 21 homers and stole 19 bases. In the NLDS, the Brewers didn’t get that same star-level production (2-for-16 with two walks). He could change a series if he gets back on track. — Rowan Kavner AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES All times ET; * – if necessaryGame 1 — Monday, October 12 at Rays, 8 p.m. (TBS)Game 2 — Tuesday, October 13 at Rays, 8 p.m. (TBS)Game 3 — Thursday, October 15, at Cleveland, 6 p.m. (TBS)Game 4 — Friday, October 16, at Cleveland, 6 p.m. (TBS)Game 5* — Saturday, October 17, at Cleveland, 8 p.m. (TBS)Game 6* — Monday, October 19 at Rays, 5 p.m. (TBS)Game 7* — Tuesday, October 20 at Rays, 8 p.m. (TBS) 2026 Record: 85-77 (1st in AL Central; 4th in AL)World Series Odds: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total) There’s a reason José Ramírez’s teammates call him the GOAT, and it seems like he never wastes an opportunity to show us why, particularly when the season is on the line. After a quiet start to the ALDS in Games 1 and 2, which allowed the White Sox to storm ahead, Ramirez finally woke up in Game 3 and saved Cleveland from elimination. He did it again in Game 4, with a dramatic, go-ahead two-run home run off Jordan Hicks in the fifth inning. And then again in Game 5, with the Guardians’ only runs of the night coming off Ramirez’s bat on a two-run shot off Sean Burke in the fourth inning, sending Cleveland to the ALCS. If anyone can carry a team to the promised land, it’s J-Ram. Nobody saw this coming. Bailey put the Guardians on the board in Game 4 with a surprising solo shot off White Sox right-hander Erick Fedde in a fifth inning that changed the outcome of their season. Bailey’s home run, his first career long ball in the postseason, cut Cleveland’s deficit against the Sox to 2-1. Right after, Ramirez gave the team the lead with a two-run shot, and that wouldn’t have been possible without Bailey’s performance at the plate. Bailey was traded to Cleveland in May after a disappointing start to the season with the Giants. He joined the Guardians known as a defense-first catcher, with most of his value being driven by his game-calling. But if he can provide more pop from the plate, the Guardians have another X-factor on their hands. After a magnificent breakout rookie season for Cleveland, the 25-year-old is 5-for-20 in the postseason, still searching for his first career playoff home run. DeLauter was the best hitter in the Guardians lineup in the regular season after batting .287 with a .820 OPS, 16 home runs, 30 doubles, 67 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 133 games. He hasn’t provided that kind of spark for Cleveland through five games in the ALDS, and the Guardians will need the regular-season version of DeLauter if they have any chance of breaking past the Rays.  – Deesha Thosar 2026 Record: 98-64 (1st in AL East; Best in AL)World Series Odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total) Before you argue with me about their real key being their trio of sluggers of Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda,  and Yandy Diaz, or their clean, fundamental baseball (seriously, shout out to Tampa Bay for leading the league in bunts and bunt attempts), having a lights-out ace on the staff like Drew Rasmussen is arguably the biggest advantage in the playoffs. Just look at Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Dodger heroics in the Fall Classic against the Blue Jays last year. Aces who are versatile, dominant, and electric every time they step on the mound are just built differently — and Rasmussen is cut from that same cloth. He has three fastball variations, and they look identical coming out of his hand. He can get in an entire lineup’s head (looking at you, Yankees) and he’s well-rested, which will only help his already stellar command and control. After this October, Rasmussen will no longer be underrated. Meet the definitive breakout star of the Rays’ sweep over the Yankees in the ALDS. Mesa hit a tie-breaking two-run home run off Yankees southpaw Max Fried in the sixth inning of Game 3, lifting Tampa Bay to a 4-3 win and turning heads in the process. Mesa was DFA’ed by the Marlins in February after making his debut and recording a 78 OPS+ in 16 games there. A week before spring training, the Rays made an under-the-wire trade for Mesa that, eight months later, would shape their postseason. He wasn’t on Tampa’s Opening Day roster. They finally called him up at the end of May, and now it’s difficult to imagine him anywhere else. Particularly against southpaws, Mesa is phenomenal. He batted .333 with an .868 OPS in the regular season this year. It’s still early, but Diaz has been quiet this postseason after going 3-for-12 with a walk and three strikeouts in the ALDS. He’s been Tampa Bay’s dependable tablesetter all season, but he needs to do a little more as the lineup’s leadoff hitter for the team’s offensive plans to work. During the regular season, Diaz was part of the Rays’ three-headed monster, with Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero following him, in an All-Star season for the veteran. The fact that that trio slugged all year, in addition to putting the ball in play, is a major reason the Rays are the favorite to win the AL pennant. But Diaz hasn’t done any of that in October. He brings a career slashline of .186/.282/.278 with just two home runs in 29 playoff games. – Deesha Thosar