2026 World Cup Odds: Folarin Balogun’s Return Leaves Books Scrambling

A shocking decision on Sunday gave a jolt to the USA vs. Belgium odds. FIFA suspended the red card issued to U.S. star Folarin Balogun in Wednesday’s 2-0 World Cup win over Bosnia and Herzegovina. That means Balogun is eligible to play in Monday night’s Round of 16 match in Seattle. And it also means bookmakers have had to initiate several course corrections. “From a customer perspective, it’s tremendous news. From a team and country perspective, it’s tremendous news,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. “But for sportsbooks, it’s a little headache. We built our prices and traded based on the USA’s top goalscorer not playing. “Now, he’s the co-favorite to be a goalscorer and co-favorite to be the first goalscorer. So we’re scrambling.” Mucklow helps dive into USA-Belgium odds ahead of Monday night’s 8 p.m. ET showdown on FOX. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Multiple Market Moves Bettors wasted no time after FIFA’s Sunday surprise, jumping on Balogun in multiple markets. As Mucklow alluded to, Balogun is now the +525 co-favorite — along with Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku — to score the first goal in Monday’s match. “After just 2.5 hours, Balogun is already at the top in tickets for first goalscorer,” Mucklow said Sunday afternoon. Balogun is also ostensibly the co-favorite for an anytime goal, sitting at +145, right behind Lukaku’s +144. So, of course, Balogun is also the favorite to be the first U.S. goalscorer (+525) and the favorite for an anytime U.S. goal (+145). Money From The Masses As for the match itself, whether Balogun played or not, the public betting masses would be all over the USA. There’s no turning back that tide at this point. “Every game America has played so far, we’ve broken records for tickets and money on soccer,” Mucklow said. Prior to the Balogun news, Caesars Sports had Belgium as a slim favorite in both the three-way moneyline and To Advance markets. Now, it’s the U.S. as a slim favorite. On the three-way, which is for 90 minutes plus injury time, it was Belgium +155/USA +164/Draw +230. That moved to USA +144/Belgium +173/Draw +230, then tightened to USA +155/Belgium +159/Draw +235. The U.S. is taking 72% of tickets and 79% of money in the three-way market. In the To Advance market — wagering on which team reaches the quarterfinals, whether in regulation, overtime or a penalty-kick shootout — it was Belgium -114/USA -108 before FIFA’s decision. Caesars is now at USA -113/Belgium -109. The United States are landing 82% of tickets and 83% of money in the To Advance market. “The interest is just off the charts. I’m stunned,” Mucklow said. “Everybody’s bought into it.” What The Book Needs USA vs. Belgium odds present an interesting dilemma for oddsmakers, something they’ve faced throughout this tournament. If the U.S. loses on Monday night, then sportsbooks clean up not only on the match, but on all the USA wagers made in World Cup futures odds. And that’s a substantial amount of bets and dollars, as the Stars & Stripes have grown in popularity over the past month. However, the U.S. is also the most popular team in the tournament. So sportsbook operators don’t necessarily want the USMNT to bow out just yet. “Another couple of rounds would be great. The passion here is just phenomenal,” Mucklow said, while noting that it’s more a matter of how the U.S. advances. “The book’s ideal scenario is USA to just get through every round on penalties. I’m more than happy with that.” To clarify: Caesars wants 90 minutes plus injury time to end in a draw. Which means the book scoops up all the three-way moneyline dollars wagered on the USA and Belgium. Then in overtime — which would draw a boatload of in-game USA wagers — Mucklow wants the game to remain tied, followed by the U.S. winning a penalty-kick shootout. Part of Mucklow’s calculus is that, while the USA is a great story, it’s still a long way from winning the World Cup. Caesars and sportsbooks across the country ultimately expect to win on all those USMNT futures bets. “I’m a realist. Can they win it? I don’t think so. Can they go further? Yes,” he said. “USA is still a 25/1 shot to win the tournament. Am I nervous now? No. Will I get nervous if the U.S. gets to the semifinals? Probably. “But the odds speak for themselves.”